Future of Engineering

Monday, March 24, 2008

Composites Has Huge Demand from Aerospace, Wind Turbines, Oil & Gas Cos

The composites industry today is seeing strong double-digit growth, with gross margins in the range of 21 to 23 percent and research and development spending in the range of 2 to 5 percent. By my reckoning, the use of carbon fiber in wind turbine blades will be the second largest application after aerospace by 2010. Other major drivers include offshore oil and gas, pressure vessels (particularly those for hydrogen storage), military defense and sports.

The overall market outlook for the next 20 years is positive, despite the uncertain economy and the weakness of the dollar against the euro and the yen. Here’s a rundown on the fiber industry as well as the overall composites industry and market demand.

There has been a paradigm shift in aircraft design at Boeing and Airbus, with composites now specified for primary structures. This is a significant change. All future wide-body airplanes shipped from both manufacturers are based on the new paradigm. Both Boeing and Airbus are projecting multibillion-dollar markets for new airplanes over the next 20 years, particularly in Asia.

The industrial market, which can include basically everything outside of the aerospace/military sector and sporting goods, has a 15 percent CAGR. Sporting goods checks in at 7 percent growth. The primary consumers are the U.S., Europe and Japan. China, Taiwan, India, Bangladesh and Vietnam have started using carbon fiber and are driving demand upward. Global demand estimates through 2020 for carbon fiber are presented in the Table.

Meeting this burgeoning demand for carbon fiber are seven major manufacturers: Cytec, Hexcel, Mitsubishi Rayon, SGL, Toho-Tenax, Toray and Zoltek. Three of these, Toray, Toho-Tenax and Mitsubishi, control 70 percent of the market

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